Will the Bumble app boost Bumble’s Q1 revenue?

Oonline dating platform Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ: BMBL) is expected to report its first quarter 2022 results on May 11, after market close.

The company, known for its Badoo, Fruitz and Bumble apps, recorded impressive growth in key metrics such as total paid users and average revenue per paid user (ARPPU) in Q4 2021 and provided encouraging projections for 2022 in March.

However, its results were weaker than expected in the fourth quarter, with a loss of $0.08 per share, worse than the consensus estimate of $0.00 per share. Revenue of $208.2 million was 0.7% lower than the consensus estimate of $209.6 million.

With first quarter earnings knocking on the door, a brief overview of consensus expectations and factors that may have influenced the results will be helpful.

Consensus estimates for the first quarter

For the first quarter of 2022, Bumble’s consensus earnings estimate is set at $0.01 per share. This estimate suggests an improvement from the $0.08 per share loss recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Additionally, the company’s consensus revenue estimate is $208.4 million, slightly higher than the prior quarter’s total of $208.2 million.

Analyst Marc Mahaney of Evercore ISI finds the consensus estimate of $208 million for revenue to be “reasonable.” The analyst has a buy rating and a price target of $40 (99.5% upside potential) on BMBL.

Factors influencing Q1

Bumble benefited from an increase in total paid users and ARPPU in the fourth quarter of 2021, mainly thanks to its Bumble application. The continuation of such a trend in the first quarter of 2022 will be reflected in its performance.

Additionally, the company’s efforts to expand its market presence through digital marketing, improved user experience, and constant product development could have been beneficial. Additionally, the addition of the Fruitz dating app to its portfolio is another tailwind for the company.

For the first quarter of 2022, the company expects total revenue to be between $207 million and $210 million. Bumble App revenue is forecast between $152 million and $153 million, which is higher than the previous quarter’s total of $150.5 million.

On the other hand, the impact of foreign currency translation is expected to be negative $5 million in the quarter, while a loss of business due to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia is expected. negatively impact revenue by $2 million.

Website traffic growth

A look at Bumble’s website traffic highlights the growing popularity of the company’s products and services. According to the TipRanks Website Traffic tool, traffic to bumble.com increased by 28.02% in April compared to March, increased by 4.06% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and jumped by 49.67% since the beginning of the year compared to the same period last year.

The Taking of Wall Street

As for Wall Street, the company has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 10 buys and four takes awarded over the past three months. Bumble’s price prediction of $34.07 implies a potential upside of 69.9% from current levels.

Over the past year, Bumble shares are down about 66%.

Conclusion

Based on the aforementioned discussion, it appears that Bumble’s Q1 2022 results will be driven by the strength of its revenue in its Bumble app. Obstacles in the form of currency problems and the loss of Russian business are of concern.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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